:::Ohio @ Ball State:::
Current line: Ball St -6.5
Total: 60
:::Ohio:::
Ohio record sits at 8-2 with losses coming against Miami OH in week 9 and Bowling Green in week 11. Both opponents are MAC who sits not far at the top in the standings.
Ohio ATS record sits at 4-6 overall, 1-3 away, and 1-0 as away underdog.
Notable games that Ohio accomplished were against Penn State in week 1 winning 24-14 and went on a 7 game winning streak before losing to Miami Ohio 20-23, failing to cover as a -6.5 spread as favorites.
:::Ball State:::
Ball St record sits at 7-3 with losses coming against Clemson, Kent State, and Northern Illinois. Ball State is currently on a 4 game winning streak which 3 of the 4 were MAC opponents.
Notable games were against Toledo last week where they won straight up as an 6-pt underdog 34-27. They have beaten last 4 opponents at no less than 7 points margin average.
Downside to Ball State is that they loss to 2 top MAC opponents in Kent State, losing by 2 as a -2.5 point favorite and Northern Illinois, losing by 12 as a 3 point underdog.
Head to head, Ball State has won straight up in the previous 2 meetings as underdogs while Ohio won and covered as favorites the previous 3 before that.
:::Analysis:::
Ohio went on a 7 game winning streak to start the season but fell to 2 conference opponent in Miami Oh and Bowling Green. Ohio had a soft schedule and could have been playing in a MAC championship game but with the 2 losses made their chances unlikely. QB Tyler Tettleton and RB Beau Blankenship are the offensive leaders of the Bobcats. Tettleton has shown that he can get the job done. Same goes for Beau. But against the loss to Miami Ohio and Bowling Green, we did not see enough effort to pull off the win. Against Bowling Green, Ohio's special team created many mistakes that favored the Falcons, leading the visitor to a win in Ohio. When in gear, Ohio can be a threat to any team as they have shown offensively. Defensively, they are average but one player that sticks out as a star is Keith Moore. He has lead the team and could be the factor in grouping Ohio's defense in stopping a lethal Ball State offense.
Ball State has been more impressive in my opinion, facing more inferior opponents. The downside is that they loss to Northern Illinois and Kent State, two of the best in the MAC. Ball State barely loss to Kent State and hung around long enough before losing against a killing machine in a Northern Illinois team. So who's the better team? I would have to give it to Ball State. Week after week, they have shown more of a fight on the field. Ball State gives up points as much as they put up. They have also won 4 straight with 2 games left in the season. Not much going for Ball State defensively. They are ranked 108th in total yards allowed, 110th in rushing yards allowed, and 94th against the pass.
What I see here is a Ohio team that will use its strength against a poor defense and that is running the ball a lot. Expect Tettleton to take the ball in his own hand also to gain yards on 2nd and 3rd down situation. Ohio will do its best to keep Ball State off the field to limit their offensive production. Ball Stste may win but will not cover the spread what will be a close game.
:::PICK:::
Ohio +6.5
:::LEAN:::
Under
November 14, 2012 9pm
:::Toledo @ Northern Illinois:::
Current line: N ill -10.5
Total: 69
:::QUICK LOOK:::
Northern Illinois has been a cash cow going 8-1-1 against the spread while Toledo 6-4 against the spread.
Overall, the Huskies are 9-1, losing to Iowa in week 1 by 1 point. Since then, they have been favorites to win week after week and have covered except for 2 games against Army in week 3 and Kansas in week 4.
Toledo are 8-2 overall, losing the first week against Arizona by 7 points (but won as a +10 point underdog). Since then, they went to win 8 week straight but loss last week to Ball State by 7 points and failed to cash the spread as a 6 point underdog.
Head to head, Northern Illinois won the previous 2. Last meeting, Toledo were favorites by 9.5 points but failed to cover with a final score of 63-60.
Toledo had the best of Northern Illinois within the past 13 years winning 9 against the spread while Northern Illinois won 4 against the spread. It became more of a competition within the last 4 years. I expect the same tonight as these team are considered to be elite respectively.
The Huskies average 41 points while allowing only 17 points. Defense has really stepped up this year compared to last year. QB Jordan Lynch has been more than amazing as he threw for 1900 yds and rushing for 1200 yds. Northern Illinois is a scoring machine. Toledo has fared well over the years but fall short compared to last year. However, Toledo still packs a high powered offense. I like for this game to go above the total.
:::PICK:::
Over
:::LEAN:::
Northern Illinois
Pennsoul's pick for 2012: 6-3
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