:::Bowling Green Falcons @ Ohio Bobcats:::
Current Line: Ohio -3
Current Total: 48.5
Record:
Bowling Green: (6-3)(6-3 ATS)(0-8 O/U)
Ohio: (8-1)(4-5 ATS)(4-4 O/U)
Tonight we have a Mid-American Conference game between the #4-MAC rank Bobcats versus the #5-MAC rank Falcons. Both team trail Northern Illinois, Kent State, and Toledo respectively.
:::About Ohio:::
Ohio has done well throughout this season with QB Tyler Tettleton at the helm. Besides Tettleton, leading the way for the Bobcats is RB Beau Blankenship.
Ohio rank #26 in the nation averaging 34.5 ppg. On a better note, Ohio ranks #19 in yards per game, #18 in 3rd down conversions, and #16 in redzone scoring.
Ohio favors the run more than the passing game. However, Tettleton has fared well in passing with 1,900 yards and 15 TDs and only 2 INTs.
Ohio has also done well against giveaways as they rank #3 and #7 in turnover margins.
Offensively, Ohio takes care of the ball real well but note, they played teams that are ranked in the bottom of the percentile (uMass, Marshall, Akron, Buffalo, E. Mich, NM state). They did have a win against Penn State at the beginning of year winning 24-14. But loss to Miami Oh 20-23 2 weeks ago.
Ohio won 7 straight before losing to Miami Oh and haven't covered a spread over 7 points or more except against New Mexico State and Eastern Michigan.
Not much to say about Ohio's defense besides the fact that they are rank #7 at opponent's rush play percentage. That just may mean that the other team commits more passing play than runs.
Ohio allows 138.9 rushing yards per game and 266 passing yards per game.
A big discrepency I find to standout about Ohio's defense is that they are ranked #101 in opponent's 3rd down conversion at 45% and ranked #104 in opponent's redzone scoring at 88%.
However, giving up 24 points per game is not so bad considering the stats in the redzone.
:::About Bowling Green:::
Bowling Green have been outstanding on defense allowing only 15 points per game and 290 total yards on average, ranking #9 in scores allowed and #8 in total yards allowed. Another defensive factor is that Bowling Green are ranked #19 in yards per play allowed (4.6), #16 in 3rd down conversion allowed, and #14 in opponents rush yards per game (105.2 yards). The passing defense is doing well also ranking at #23 at passing yards allowed and #29 in opponents interception percentage.
Key Notes:
The Falcons keeps improving in each game with a 5 game streak... winning against Rhode Island (FCS), #118 Akron (24-10), #90 Miami oh (37-12), #120 uMass (24-0), and #100 E Michigan (24-3), covering the spread as well. Bowling Green losses came at the hands of Florida, Toledo, and Virginia Tech.
QB Matt Shilz has thrown for 509 yds, 5 TDs, and 2 INTs against Ohio and for the past 5 games, threw for 8 TDs and 2 INTs. For the year, he has thrown for 1,752 yards and 9 TDs. RB Anthon Samuel is also doing well for the Falcons, rushing for 100-plus yards in 4 out of last 6 games. For the year, he has 128 carries, 725 yards, and 8 TDs. RB John Pettigrew has also filled in with 82 carries, 388 yards. The Falcons have a series of weapons in the backfield who can get 5+ yards per attempt.
Defensively, they have forced 10 turnovers in the past 3 games.
:::Conclusion:::
As a conference matchup and a fight for a chance at the MAC championship game, each team will devote to taking out the other in making a statement towards Kent St, Northern Illinois, and/or Toledo. The MAC has been surprisingly competitive over the years but no where near the top-ranked conferences. It may have a lot to do with the schedule. But as far as in-conference play, these MAC teams have been at each others neck. Most games inside the MAC has always been close, not to mention, high scoring also.
In order for Bowling Green to win, they must contain Tyler Tettleton and Beau Blankenship. Without production from these two, Ohio has nothin to fall back on to produce a winning result. Create turnovers and allow the defense to live up to its rankings. Going against the home crowd of Ohio may be hard but the Falcons have done pretty well over the years in Ohio since they are 4-2 straight up on the road and 5-1 against the spread.
Bowling Green's defense is on fire but the matchups they've had are pretty soft. If they can continue the streak, Ohio will face a huge test against a team who is stack defensively in almost every category ranking in the top 20.
Ohio is a run first kind of team. They have been successful on the ground. I see no other way for Ohio than to continue this success even though they face a defense who allowed only 104 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry. Tettleton can be a threat in the passing game as we seen him do last year but this year has utilize his dual-threat capability.
The key for Ohio is to make sure Bowling Green doesn't establish a successful running game, wear out the Falcons defense by managing the clock, keep them away from redzone opportunities, and put pressure on Shilz so he can commit turnovers with the ball in the air.
I may have pointed out the goods about the defense but I truly believe that Ohio prevails offensively. Both teams had a soft schedule and the numbers may tell a different story. Ohio will not allow another embarrassment from a conference foe. Look for Tettleton to be focus and play a near flawless game against a stack defense. A 3 point spread is not enough for the Falcons. Ohio will cover to inch closer to a possibility in a MAC championship game.
:::Trend to consider:::
Bowling Green 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference game.
5-0 ATS in their last 5 overall.
Ohio is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against teams with a winning record.
1-4 ATS in their last 5 MAC games.
1-4 in ther last 5 overall.
The Under is 8-0 in Bowling Green's last 8 overall.
Under is 5-0 in the last 5 road games for Bowling Green.
The Over is 9-4 in Ohio's last 13 games against winning teams.
Bowling Green is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 in Ohio and 10-3 ATS against Ohio overall.
Ohio won 3 straight.
:::PICK:::
Ohio
:::LEAN:::
Over
Pennsoul's Pick for 2012: 6-2
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