WEDNESDAY MACTION!!!

November 14, 2012 8pm
:::Ohio @ Ball State:::

Current line: Ball St -6.5
Total: 60

:::Ohio:::
Ohio record sits at 8-2 with losses coming against Miami OH in week 9 and Bowling Green in week 11. Both opponents are MAC who sits not far at the top in the standings.
Ohio ATS record sits at 4-6 overall, 1-3 away, and 1-0 as away underdog.
Notable games that Ohio accomplished were against Penn State in week 1 winning 24-14 and went on a 7 game winning streak before losing to Miami Ohio 20-23, failing to cover as a -6.5 spread as favorites.

:::Ball State:::
Ball St record sits at 7-3 with losses coming against Clemson, Kent State, and Northern Illinois. Ball State is currently on a 4 game winning streak which 3 of the 4 were MAC opponents.
Notable games were against Toledo last week where they won straight up as an 6-pt underdog 34-27. They have beaten last 4 opponents at no less than 7 points margin average.
Downside to Ball State is that they loss to 2 top MAC opponents in Kent State, losing by 2 as a -2.5 point favorite and Northern Illinois, losing by 12 as a 3 point underdog.

Head to head, Ball State has won straight up in the previous 2 meetings as underdogs while Ohio won and covered as favorites the previous 3 before that.

:::Analysis:::
Ohio went on a 7 game winning streak to start the season but fell to 2 conference opponent in Miami Oh and Bowling Green. Ohio had a soft schedule and could have been playing in a MAC championship game but with the 2 losses made their chances unlikely. QB Tyler Tettleton and RB Beau Blankenship are the offensive leaders of the Bobcats. Tettleton has shown that he can get the job done. Same goes for Beau. But against the loss to Miami Ohio and Bowling Green, we did not see enough effort to pull off the win. Against Bowling Green, Ohio's special team created many mistakes that favored the Falcons, leading the visitor to a win in Ohio. When in gear, Ohio can be a threat to any team as they have shown offensively. Defensively, they are average but one player that sticks out as a star is Keith Moore. He has lead the team and could be the factor in grouping Ohio's defense in stopping a lethal Ball State offense.

Ball State has been more impressive in my opinion, facing more inferior opponents. The downside is that they loss to Northern Illinois and Kent State, two of the best in the MAC. Ball State barely loss to Kent State and hung around long enough before losing against a killing machine in a Northern Illinois team. So who's the better team? I would have to give it to Ball State. Week after week, they have shown more of a fight on the field. Ball State gives up points as much as they put up. They have also won 4 straight with 2 games left in the season. Not much going for Ball State defensively. They are ranked 108th in total yards allowed, 110th in rushing yards allowed, and 94th against the pass.
What I see here is a Ohio team that will use its strength against a poor defense and that is running the ball a lot. Expect Tettleton to take the ball in his own hand also to gain yards on 2nd and 3rd down situation. Ohio will do its best to keep Ball State off the field to limit their offensive production. Ball Stste may win but will not cover the spread what will be a close game.

:::PICK:::
Ohio +6.5

:::LEAN:::
Under

November 14, 2012 9pm
:::Toledo @ Northern Illinois:::

Current line: N ill -10.5
Total: 69

:::QUICK LOOK:::

Northern Illinois has been a cash cow going 8-1-1 against the spread while Toledo 6-4 against the spread.
Overall, the Huskies are 9-1, losing to Iowa in week 1 by 1 point. Since then, they have been favorites to win week after week and have covered except for 2 games against Army in week 3 and Kansas in week 4.
Toledo are 8-2 overall, losing the first week against Arizona by 7 points (but won as a +10 point underdog). Since then, they went to win 8 week straight but loss last week to Ball State by 7 points and failed to cash the spread as a 6 point underdog.
Head to head, Northern Illinois won the previous 2. Last meeting, Toledo were favorites by 9.5 points but failed to cover with a final score of 63-60.

Toledo had the best of Northern Illinois within the past 13 years winning 9 against the spread while Northern Illinois won 4 against the spread. It became more of a competition within the last 4 years. I expect the same tonight as these team are considered to be elite respectively.

The Huskies average 41 points while allowing only 17 points. Defense has really stepped up this year compared to last year. QB Jordan Lynch has been more than amazing as he threw for 1900 yds and rushing for 1200 yds. Northern Illinois is a scoring machine. Toledo has fared well over the years but fall short compared to last year. However, Toledo still packs a high powered offense. I like for this game to go above the total.

:::PICK:::
Over

:::LEAN:::
Northern Illinois

Pennsoul's pick for 2012: 6-3

MAC Wednesday Night Football

November 7, 2012 8pm
:::Bowling Green Falcons @ Ohio Bobcats:::

Current Line: Ohio -3
Current Total: 48.5

Record:
Bowling Green: (6-3)(6-3 ATS)(0-8 O/U)
Ohio: (8-1)(4-5 ATS)(4-4 O/U)

Tonight we have a Mid-American Conference game between the #4-MAC rank Bobcats versus the #5-MAC rank Falcons. Both team trail Northern Illinois, Kent State, and Toledo respectively.

:::About Ohio:::
Ohio has done well throughout this season with QB Tyler Tettleton at the helm. Besides Tettleton, leading the way for the Bobcats is RB Beau Blankenship.
Ohio rank #26 in the nation averaging 34.5 ppg. On a better note, Ohio ranks #19 in yards per game, #18 in 3rd down conversions, and #16 in redzone scoring.
Ohio favors the run more than the passing game. However, Tettleton has fared well in passing with 1,900 yards and 15 TDs and only 2 INTs.
Ohio has also done well against giveaways as they rank #3 and #7 in turnover margins.

Offensively, Ohio takes care of the ball real well but note, they played teams that are ranked in the bottom of the percentile (uMass, Marshall, Akron, Buffalo, E. Mich, NM state). They did have a win against Penn State at the beginning of year winning 24-14. But loss to Miami Oh 20-23 2 weeks ago.
Ohio won 7 straight before losing to Miami Oh and haven't covered a spread over 7 points or more except against New Mexico State and Eastern Michigan.

Not much to say about Ohio's defense besides the fact that they are rank #7 at opponent's rush play percentage. That just may mean that the other team commits more passing play than runs.
Ohio allows 138.9 rushing yards per game and 266 passing yards per game.
A big discrepency I find to standout about Ohio's defense is that they are ranked #101 in opponent's 3rd down conversion at 45% and ranked #104 in opponent's redzone scoring at 88%.
However, giving up 24 points per game is not so bad considering the stats in the redzone.

:::About Bowling Green:::
Bowling Green have been outstanding on defense allowing only 15 points per game and 290 total yards on average, ranking #9 in scores allowed and #8 in total yards allowed. Another defensive factor is that Bowling Green are ranked #19 in yards per play allowed (4.6), #16 in 3rd down conversion allowed, and #14 in opponents rush yards per game (105.2 yards). The passing defense is doing well also ranking at #23 at passing yards allowed and #29 in opponents interception percentage.

Key Notes:
The Falcons keeps improving in each game with a 5 game streak... winning against Rhode Island (FCS), #118 Akron (24-10), #90 Miami oh (37-12), #120 uMass (24-0), and #100 E Michigan (24-3), covering the spread as well. Bowling Green losses came at the hands of Florida, Toledo, and Virginia Tech.
QB Matt Shilz has thrown for 509 yds, 5 TDs, and 2 INTs against Ohio and for the past 5 games, threw for 8 TDs and 2 INTs. For the year, he has thrown for 1,752 yards and 9 TDs. RB Anthon Samuel is also doing well for the Falcons, rushing for 100-plus yards in 4 out of last 6 games. For the year, he has 128 carries, 725 yards, and 8 TDs. RB John Pettigrew has also filled in with 82 carries, 388 yards. The Falcons have a series of weapons in the backfield who can get 5+ yards per attempt.
Defensively, they have forced 10 turnovers in the past 3 games.

:::Conclusion:::
As a conference matchup and a fight for a chance at the MAC championship game, each team will devote to taking out the other in making a statement towards Kent St, Northern Illinois, and/or Toledo. The MAC has been surprisingly competitive over the years but no where near the top-ranked conferences. It may have a lot to do with the schedule. But as far as in-conference play, these MAC teams have been at each others neck. Most games inside the MAC has always been close, not to mention, high scoring also.
In order for Bowling Green to win, they must contain Tyler Tettleton and Beau Blankenship. Without production from these two, Ohio has nothin to fall back on to produce a winning result. Create turnovers and allow the defense to live up to its rankings. Going against the home crowd of Ohio may be hard but the Falcons have done pretty well over the years in Ohio since they are 4-2 straight up on the road and 5-1 against the spread.
Bowling Green's defense is on fire but the matchups they've had are pretty soft. If they can continue the streak, Ohio will face a huge test against a team who is stack defensively in almost every category ranking in the top 20.
Ohio is a run first kind of team. They have been successful on the ground. I see no other way for Ohio than to continue this success even though they face a defense who allowed only 104 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry. Tettleton can be a threat in the passing game as we seen him do last year but this year has utilize his dual-threat capability.
The key for Ohio is to make sure Bowling Green doesn't establish a successful running game, wear out the Falcons defense by managing the clock, keep them away from redzone opportunities, and put pressure on Shilz so he can commit turnovers with the ball in the air.
I may have pointed out the goods about the defense but I truly believe that Ohio prevails offensively. Both teams had a soft schedule and the numbers may tell a different story. Ohio will not allow another embarrassment from a conference foe. Look for Tettleton to be focus and play a near flawless game against a stack defense. A 3 point spread is not enough for the Falcons. Ohio will cover to inch closer to a possibility in a MAC championship game.

:::Trend to consider:::
Bowling Green 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference game.
5-0 ATS in their last 5 overall.

Ohio is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against teams with a winning record.
1-4 ATS in their last 5 MAC games.
1-4 in ther last 5 overall.

The Under is 8-0 in Bowling Green's last 8 overall.
Under is 5-0 in the last 5 road games for Bowling Green.

The Over is 9-4 in Ohio's last 13 games against winning teams.

Bowling Green is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 in Ohio and 10-3 ATS against Ohio overall.
Ohio won 3 straight.

:::PICK:::
Ohio

:::LEAN:::
Over

Pennsoul's Pick for 2012: 6-2

QUICK PICKS

:::NFL Quick Picks for 1pm games:::

(These picks will not reflect the record that I keep track of. Quick picks are picks without write-ups, data analysis, etc.).

:::1pm Picks:::

Denver -5
Baltimore -3.5
Arizona +10.5
Houston -11
Miami -1.5
Detroit -6
Carolina +3.5
Tennessee +5

Over Balt/Cle 43.5
Under Mia/Ind 44
Over Det/Jac 44
Under Chi/Ten 43.5

Best Of Luck!!!

QUICK LOOK

PAC 12 FRIDAY NIGHT
November 2, 2012 9:00pm

Washington Huskies @ California Golden Bears

Current line: Cal -4
Total: 51

(The "Quick Look" segment will only summarize thoughts on the matchup with little information to conclude a theory of which team may cover the spread).

Let's get started...

Here we have a conference matchup between California and Washington with the Bears as the host. This game will be considered of importance since both teams will be fighting for bowl eligibility.
Cal has a record of 3-6.
Wash has a record of 4-4.

Cal has a record of 1-4 ATS at home.
Wash has a record of 0-3 ATS away.

As stated above, both team will be fighting for a bowl spot. However, Cal is in dire need to win their next three games in order for that to happen. They have Oregon and Oregon State following tonight's schedule So will Cal treat this game far more important than its opponent? Of course. They have a tough schedule ahead so to seal this win is "a must."

Cal has a series of weapons but some are in questions for tonight's game such as leading receiver Keenan Allen. They are also quiet thin at the linebacker position.

Cal has been outgained by opponents in yards but put up greater numbers on the run against opponents.
Wash, on the other hand, have been outgained in both statistics.

Overall, Wash is listed near the bottom of the 120 FBS schools in offensive production.
Cal sits in a little better than Wash but no where near being the best in its class.

When it comes to efficiency, Cal holds the edge against Wash.

One thing Wash do have that sticks out on paper is their "strength of schedule." They have the toughest schedule compared to any other school in the FBS.
With wins over Stanford and Oregon State, what will transpire tonight against California, who is in need of the next 3 win?
Wash is also in search of bowl eligibility with just 2 wins to lock it in.

The key factors for Wash is QB Keith Price and their head coach who's known to put the ball in the air more than anything.

The downside to Wash is that when playing on the road, they get blown out by their opponents. (Arizona, Louisiana State, Oregon).

:::CONCLUSION:::
With Cal's head coach Tedford on the brink of losing his job and their inconsistencies, it's hard to justify if they can pull off the win against a Washington team who has brought down Stanford and Oregon State. Likewise, I can not justify the same for a Washington team who gets blown into smithereens on the road.
Head to head, Washington has won the last 3 games against Cal.
I'm going to pass on the team and pick the total. PAC 12 is known for putting up points and I don't see much defensive effort for both teams. It is more likely that both teams will duke it out offensively to the finish line since both will be fighting for bowl eligibility.
Zach Maynard and Keith Price are more than capable of doing so.

:::PICK:::
Over 51

:::LEAN:::
California

Score Prediction:
Wash 31
Cal 35

Pennsoul's pick: 6-1 in 2012

NFL Thursday Night Football

Thursday, Nov. 1, 2012 8:20pm
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers

Opening Line: SD -9
Current Line: -9.5

Opening Total: 43
Current Total: 42.5

San Diego: (3-4)(3-4 *ATS)(4-3 *O/U)
Kansas City: (1-6)(2-5 ATS)(4-3 O/u)

*ATS - against the spread
*O/U - over/under

A divisional showdown between AFC West San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs. Here we have a poor KC team facing a somewhat Jekyll and Hyde team in SD on the road in sunny Southern California. SD a big favorite playing at home sits at 1-2 while KC 1-2 on the road.

Head to head, SD covered the spread in KC back in September 30 with a final score of 37-20 as a -1 favorite while the total soared above the 43 mark.

:::KC OFFENSE:::
KC produces 17 ppg with an average score margin of -12.7 (meaning opponents have outgained them on the board by -12.7 on average). However, KC has put up impressive yards per game at 367.3 with big help coming from RB Jamaal Charles who ran for 100+ yards on several occasions. The QB situation is a clown show between Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn.
Matt Cassel throws at a 59.7% completion rate with 6.6 yards per attempt. But the problem with Cassel is that his turnover ratio's horrendous. 6 TDs to 10 INTs with 7 fumbles and a passer rating of 69.0. Brady Quinn fills in for Cassel and underachieved as well with an even lower passer rating of 43.1 and a 59.1% completion rating and 4.8 yards per attempt. 0 TDs and 3 INTs for the young Notre Dame alumni.

Do not expect much of this KC offense since in my opinion is by far the worst offensive team in the league. The only thing they got going for them is RB Jamaal Charles. However, In the past 2 weeks, Charles has only carried the ball 17 times. 5 carries against Oakland last week. On the bright side, Charles average 5 yards per attempt and 6.9 yards per carry. However, Charles has fumbled the ball 3 times for the season.

Conclusion:
I see this trend continuing tonight as head coach Romeo Crennel has his hand full with a dysfunctional squad who has no chemistry and QB situation that one can't solidify as a true signal caller. Despite the average points per game, I don't see KC committing much offensive production besides Jamaal Charles putting effort into getting more carries and a ground game that will result in clock management.

:::SD OFFENSE:::
Here we have a SD offense who leaves us under a question mark week after week.
First, lets pull up the numbers. SD average 22 ppg with a +1.4 avg score margin and +2% difference in time of possession. SD commits more pass play with a better completion rating than KC. Other than the game SD had played against Denver, they have limited their turnovers pretty well.
We all know what QB Philip Rivers is capable of. 2012 season has displayed a far less performance from Rivers than any other. But we all know that Rivers and co. doesn't hit the gas until the latter half of the season. Will it start with tonight's game? That's the question. The good news is that Rivers is 6-1 at home against the Chiefs but also threw for 9 INTs in those games.

:::DEFENSE:::
stats indicate a mix advantage between the 2 teams.
SD holds the advantage on field play (opp yds/play, opp yds/rush, opp yds/pass, opp yds/completion).
KC holds the advantage in opp 3rd down conversion, 1st down/play, and opp RZ scoring.

Key stats:
SD is top 6 in every defensive category against the run.
KC is rank #1 in opponents pass play pct. and opponents pass per game.

:::BETTING TREND:::
KC is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Total has gone Under 12 of 18 games
KC is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 on the road against SD

SD is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Total has gone Over in 4 of 6 games
Total has gone Under in 6 of 8 at home against KC

:::CONCLUSION:::
Looking at these two teams, I can only expect more from SD as they will rebound from a game where they only scored 6 against Cleveland while the fingers of Hurricane Sandy rained down on Cleveland's open field. Despite the betting trend and the pressure SD face on primetime, i believe they prevail and cover. KC is on a 4 game losing streak and I don't see it getting better for them unless a third string out of Iowa gets a chance to take the job with a stellar performance that is more than convincing. Home field advantage, Norv Turner on the hot seat, and a race to catch up to Denver in The AFCW means much more to SD and its their chance to prove it against a divisional foe.

:::PICK:::
San Diego

:::LEAN:::
Under 43

Score Prediction
SD 27 KC 13

Pennsoul's Pick in 2012: 5-1

Introduction

Want to welcome all to my blogspot as this will be my first post. Never brought myself to writing on blog sites nor did I ever cared to write at ALL but do have a profound interest in sharing my thoughts and opinions on the outcome of sport's game in the betting market.

First and foremost, let me introduce myself by saying I was never keen in writing so apologies if my writing is in need of drafting. Throughout the process of posting blogs, I hope to improve in writing and hopefully attract many readers who find it delighting and to overlook such dysfunctional sentence structures as I blog away. Many of my post will be informal and free minded. I will post many of my blogs by using my iphone's keyboard since majority of my day consist of an honest living (and being away from my laptop).

Moving forward...

My blogs will mainly be about sports and handicapping sports. Needless to say, I've been into sports for a long period of time. However, I have a newfound respect for handicapping and handicappers who write up analysis for the sports betting world. Their expertise and experience in capping games far exceeds my novice approach to such subject. So don't think for a second that I have a mindset in being egotistical against inferior cappers who by far have more experience, knowledge, information, connection, and best yet, a paycheck doing what they do.

However you choose to look at these future blogs is solely up to you. I do not intend anyone to hold me responsible for the choices "I" make on picking games against the spread. My evaluation on games are my data and analysis that I took upon myself, (and only myself) to research and to create a result I deem fitted accordingly. These blogs will only be a diary of such for me to reflect on how well I can call out games against the numbers.

I will also keep a record of my wins and losses on each pick so that I may keep track on how I fare in capping games.

Note, I will not be capping each and every game that's being played. Again, this is just a leisure I find myself wanting to do and a newly profound passion that I would love to exercise.

Choosing to follow my picks will be at your own risk. If you find success in doing so, a simple "thank you" will suffice. But if you find yourself stranded at an exit with a cardboard box demanding a lift to Alaska because you chose to "unload" your 401k on a play then a simple "thank you" will suffice as well.

Remember, sports betting is a risky investment that can be profitable but also break up homes and isolate you on an island as an outcast away from a world you knew so well. A professional bettor aka "sharps/wiseguys" will automatically tell you that the key factor is money management. I advise anyone who choose to invest in sports to take precaution and carefully approach the betting world with some acquired knowledge of how and when to spend on a pick without excessively over doing it. For example, do not wager a bet with your paycheck. In other words, do not bet with money that has ties to something else such as an electric bill, a mortgage, groceries, etc. you should only place a wager if you have a bankroll that is entirely intended for betting. So play at your own risk and keep a systematic routine that limits your success and failure at a price.
Again, the most important factor in sports betting is money management.

I will not get into much details on the fundamental approach on "how to bet" and "where to bet" or even outline the "price" of particular wagers since this blog is not intended to explain "sports betting 101." I can only expect the reader to already have a knowledge of some sort about sports betting. There are many sites that can assist the recreational bettor on such topics. I, myself, am also in need of a broader perspective in what I don't know about the sports betting world.

Now, to conclude my introduction, I hope you find pleasure and insight with my amateur handicapping and good luck to all for I wish for everyone to be successful in the world of sports betting!!!!

Now lets make some MONEY!