Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
Opening Line: SD -9
Current Line: -9.5
Opening Total: 43
Current Total: 42.5
San Diego: (3-4)(3-4 *ATS)(4-3 *O/U)
Kansas City: (1-6)(2-5 ATS)(4-3 O/u)
*ATS - against the spread
*O/U - over/under
A divisional showdown between AFC West San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs. Here we have a poor KC team facing a somewhat Jekyll and Hyde team in SD on the road in sunny Southern California. SD a big favorite playing at home sits at 1-2 while KC 1-2 on the road.
Head to head, SD covered the spread in KC back in September 30 with a final score of 37-20 as a -1 favorite while the total soared above the 43 mark.
:::KC OFFENSE:::
KC produces 17 ppg with an average score margin of -12.7 (meaning opponents have outgained them on the board by -12.7 on average). However, KC has put up impressive yards per game at 367.3 with big help coming from RB Jamaal Charles who ran for 100+ yards on several occasions. The QB situation is a clown show between Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn.
Matt Cassel throws at a 59.7% completion rate with 6.6 yards per attempt. But the problem with Cassel is that his turnover ratio's horrendous. 6 TDs to 10 INTs with 7 fumbles and a passer rating of 69.0. Brady Quinn fills in for Cassel and underachieved as well with an even lower passer rating of 43.1 and a 59.1% completion rating and 4.8 yards per attempt. 0 TDs and 3 INTs for the young Notre Dame alumni.
Do not expect much of this KC offense since in my opinion is by far the worst offensive team in the league. The only thing they got going for them is RB Jamaal Charles. However, In the past 2 weeks, Charles has only carried the ball 17 times. 5 carries against Oakland last week. On the bright side, Charles average 5 yards per attempt and 6.9 yards per carry. However, Charles has fumbled the ball 3 times for the season.
Conclusion:
I see this trend continuing tonight as head coach Romeo Crennel has his hand full with a dysfunctional squad who has no chemistry and QB situation that one can't solidify as a true signal caller. Despite the average points per game, I don't see KC committing much offensive production besides Jamaal Charles putting effort into getting more carries and a ground game that will result in clock management.
:::SD OFFENSE:::
Here we have a SD offense who leaves us under a question mark week after week.
First, lets pull up the numbers. SD average 22 ppg with a +1.4 avg score margin and +2% difference in time of possession. SD commits more pass play with a better completion rating than KC. Other than the game SD had played against Denver, they have limited their turnovers pretty well.
We all know what QB Philip Rivers is capable of. 2012 season has displayed a far less performance from Rivers than any other. But we all know that Rivers and co. doesn't hit the gas until the latter half of the season. Will it start with tonight's game? That's the question. The good news is that Rivers is 6-1 at home against the Chiefs but also threw for 9 INTs in those games.
:::DEFENSE:::
stats indicate a mix advantage between the 2 teams.
SD holds the advantage on field play (opp yds/play, opp yds/rush, opp yds/pass, opp yds/completion).
KC holds the advantage in opp 3rd down conversion, 1st down/play, and opp RZ scoring.
Key stats:
SD is top 6 in every defensive category against the run.
KC is rank #1 in opponents pass play pct. and opponents pass per game.
:::BETTING TREND:::
KC is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Total has gone Under 12 of 18 games
KC is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 on the road against SD
SD is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Total has gone Over in 4 of 6 games
Total has gone Under in 6 of 8 at home against KC
:::CONCLUSION:::
Looking at these two teams, I can only expect more from SD as they will rebound from a game where they only scored 6 against Cleveland while the fingers of Hurricane Sandy rained down on Cleveland's open field. Despite the betting trend and the pressure SD face on primetime, i believe they prevail and cover. KC is on a 4 game losing streak and I don't see it getting better for them unless a third string out of Iowa gets a chance to take the job with a stellar performance that is more than convincing. Home field advantage, Norv Turner on the hot seat, and a race to catch up to Denver in The AFCW means much more to SD and its their chance to prove it against a divisional foe.
:::PICK:::
San Diego
:::LEAN:::
Under 43
Score Prediction
SD 27 KC 13
Pennsoul's Pick in 2012: 5-1
o0o0o sidney, you sound like such a professional lol you have found your calling haha I think I'm going with your picks tonight since you're on fiya!!! lol
ReplyDeleteI call it how I see it. But remember, it's jus a prediction. Who knows, history and trends do tell a story of what might unfold in the future. I hope my preview proves me right.
ReplyDelete