Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins
8:25pm on NFL Network
Current Odds: Cin -3
Total: 43
(RECORD)
Cincinnati: 6-2, (5-2-1 ATS), (5-3 O/U)
Miami: 3-4, (3-4 ATS), (5-2 O/U)
We have the red-hot Bengals visiting the glamourous city of Miami to face the Dolphins on HALLOWEEN night! Questions are raised about this game since the opening line, where at some books, the line had Miami favored by 1 but quickly shifted to favor Cincy by 3. Some will ask how does one cap this game just based on line movement. Beats me, but I could definitely give a few reasons to why it may have shifted. Let's get into more depth about the game itself. Now in this particular write up, I wont break down Miami's statistical figures. I will focus more on the Bengals and "try" to make a point into why they are 6-2.
Cincy is on a ROLL! When the season started, we seen Andy Dalton treading waters by throwing an equal amount of touchdowns and interceptions. But weeks went by and now the red-headed, red-hot Dalton has thrown for 11 TDs and 3 INTs in the past four weeks. The reason why I mention this is because, these past 4 weeks, Cincinnati has won and the QB has a passer rating of 116.8 with a net yard average of 8.5, 9.5 yards per attempt, 1245 yds, and a 67.9% completion rate. Outstanding if you ask me! Now lets look at the matchup during these wins starting at week 5: New England (low-scoring result), Buffalo (did not cover the 6 pt spread), Detroit (with same exact score result as Buffalo and covering the 2.5 pt), and New York Jets (blowout game). So can we vouch for Dalton and his amazing stats against these opponents? Pretty unclear right? I, myself, don't know what to say. I do know this much, Cincy has been underdogs in a couple of these matchups so far. So what does that tell us about this Bengals team? Lets look deeper.
We know that Dalton is hot, but who has really stepped up for Dalton's phenom stats. Marvin Jones. Past 2 weeks, he has been targeted 14 times. Thats one less than AJ Green. Although, AJ Green has more yards the past 2 weeks, Jones has actually been the one putting up the points for the Bengals, at 5 compared to AJ's 1 TD last 2 weeks. But 4 of those 5 TDs were last weeks game against the Jets. So does 1 game account for a predictable future? Who else have been helping Dalton's stats? We have the tight ends. The Bengals have 2 equals in Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert, (what the Bengals needed this offseason to focus on postseason run). So far, so good. Both have been productive, with 8+ yards/carries and heavily targeted. So this is where Andy Dalton gets his stats. He has weapons to rack up (fantasy) points. So does this account for their success? Lets go into the rankings.
Cincinnati has a #7 team power rating. Miami sits at #26 in the league.
Cincinnati offense ranks:
11th in ppg
9th in yds/gm
9th in 3rd down conversion
2nd in RZ scoring
Defense ranks:
5th in opp pts/gm
8th in opp yds/gm
8th in opp rush yds/gm
9th in opp rush 1st down/gm
6th opp pass completion %
4th opp yds/pass
11th opp pass yds/gm
So on paper, this says a lot about a Bengals team that is on fire. They are productive offensively and defensively. Clearly, Cincinnati has the advantage in every offensive stats and pretty much defensively also. With such dominant stats and rankings, why is Cincinnati underdogs 4 out of 8 weeks, 2 out of the last 4 weeks? Does Vegas know something we don't? Maybe this is why... while playing away, Cincinnati's average score margin is -2. Meaning they lose by an average of 2 points on the road scoring 20.2 away while Miami has an average score margin of -0.3 at home scoring 23.7 points at home. Does this explain the line... and the Total? Maybe so... But lets not forget that Cincinnati last 3 games, they have an average score margin of 15.3 points (let's not forget the blowout game against NY Jets). Another trend to consider is that Miami has won 10 of the last 12 against Cincinnati. Maybe that's another reason for the line? But who could bet against the red-hot Bengals right? Maybe public money is flooding on the Bengals, swinging the line in the Bengals favor. Let's not also forget that Cincinnati barely escaped on the road with wins against Detroit and Buffalo, where they had to rally late to win by 3. Not to mention, losing to Chicago and Cleveland on the road.
I like to factor in the "on-fire" trend when making my picks against the spread but this game raises a lot of questions for me. Maybe the Total is the way to go here. Where both team have cashed the Over 5 times. But hell, the Total is sitting at 43!!! More questions!!!
I will wait to see if the market adjust itself and will conclude on my pick for this game. 'Til then...
Pick: Over 43
The reason for my pick here is both team are more than capable of putting up 20+ points. Yeah, Cincy has D but will be without a key defender. 'Phins are prepped for this game as they are hungry to get back into the win column. Not sure if they can do it against a tough opponent. But with the advantage of a home crowd and a primetime slot, they will be thirsty for the W and will bring all they have to the table. Miami lost games because of mistakes, and I'm pretty sure that either way, points will be put up offensively and defensively. I see this game going as high as 47 or more.
Lean: Cincinnati
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